Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeef…5667 sports 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,308 (-8%) realized −$2,176 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%210W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$432
14 days−$495
30 days−$3,175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 43% -38.8%
≤30d 26 -19.2% -26.9% 46% 23% -53.5%
≤90d 389 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 48% -16.5%
all 393 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 48% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 48% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -22.7%
15% -25.3% 32% -30.2%
20% -32.6% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$57 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$2,176
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses210 / 183
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions1
Markets (closed)393 / 394
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ 23¢ $279 $147 −$132 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $315 −$311 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $25 +$53 +209%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $368 +$89 +24%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $198 +$23 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $126 −$124 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $243 −$98 -40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $139 +$43 +31%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $215 −$107 -50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $292 −$291 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $58 +$4 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $476 +$12 +3%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $207 −$40 -19%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $310 −$179 -58%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $101 −$15 -15%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $233 −$49 -21%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $267 +$27 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $187 −$12 -6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $640 −$631 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $122 +$9 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $144 +$16 +11%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $63 +$4 +6%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $117 −$53 -45%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $53 +$18 +34%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $79 +$3 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $34 −$14 -42%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $116 −$39 -33%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $136 +$6 +5%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $48 +$12 +25%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $62 +$14 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $149 +$142 +95%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $18 +$29 +156%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $53 −$2 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $34 −$9 -28%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $33 −$21 -63%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $12 +$14 +119%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 10 $30 −$6 -19%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $151 +$24 +16%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $181 +$32 +18%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $266 +$34 +13%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $52 −$33 -64%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $28 +$6 +20%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $147 +$154 +105%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 06 $28 +$37 +129%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $36 +$5 +13%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $77 +$37 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $5 33m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $31 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $14 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $15 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $25 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $16 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $17 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $29 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $12 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $16 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $25 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $17 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $12 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $26 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $5 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins $5 2h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 62¢ $22 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $16 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $27 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $13 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $24 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $30 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $26 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $25 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $19 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $30 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $24 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.86 · official $146.86 (match) · 3500 history records