Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbef3…9b02 other 114 markets active 1d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$30
politics 24% −$7
sports 7% −$22
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 109 -1.7% -11.1% 7% 5% -9.7%
all 112 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage93d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $315 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $416 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $426 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $421 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $449 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $208 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $440 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $445 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $701 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 27h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $6 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.33 · official $189.33 (match) · 350 history records