Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbef4…dbcd sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 715d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$487 (-3%) realized −$480 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%89W / 90L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$93
14 days+$3
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$349
other 11% −$18
politics 11% −$1,003
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.3% +8.9% 67% 67% -24.9%
≤30d 33 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 48% -6.6%
≤90d 109 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 51% -5.0%
all 179 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 47% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 47% -13.4%
10% -16.9% 45% -21.7%
15% -25.0% 40% -29.2%
20% -32.3% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$59 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

715d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses89 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions3
Markets (closed)179 / 182
History coverage715d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 18 $152 −$8 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $60 +$31 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$30 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $64 +$30 +48%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $50 +$24 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $854 +$49 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$65 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $50 +$9 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $132 −$2 -2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $252 +$67 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,157 +$84 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 28 $152 −$2 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $546 +$37 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $51 +$39 +76%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 +$60 +118%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $101 +$65 +65%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $303 −$93 -31%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 +$100 +197%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $50 +$24 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $252 +$121 +48%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $302 +$88 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $152 −$14 -9%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $51 +$77 +152%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $51 +$36 +70%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $36 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $51 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $50 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 92¢ $120 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $101 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Rafael Jodar 22¢ $23 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 46¢ $51 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $83 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 60¢ $51 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk SELL Elina Svitolina 40¢ $11 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $13 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $75 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Mirra Andreeva 67¢ $50 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 98¢ $770 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.17 · official $193.17 (match) · 326 history records