Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbef5…56b6 world 21 markets active 14h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$3
world 47% +$2
other 1% −$9
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 19% -9.2%
all 21 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 14% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage526d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $105 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $114 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $281 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $4 $0 -8%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $281 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $280 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool beat Tottenham? Jan 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $37 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $37 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $33 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records