Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbef9…f367 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
politics 37% −$1
economics 10% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage112d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 18d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $80 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $80 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 38d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 39d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 42d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 43d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $80 49d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 49d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 68d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 68d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 68d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 74d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 74d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $81 76d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $81 77d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 83d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 83d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 88d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $81 89d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 96d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 97d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records