Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbefa…300d
other · 126 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,618 +65%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$92 · open −$5,496
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,817
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$5,496
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions392
Markets (closed)37 / 126
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1210.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 392 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $306 $331 +$26 (+8%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $820 $305 −$515 (-63%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $669 $260 −$409 (-61%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $520 $208 −$312 (-60%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $439 $207 −$231 (-53%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $517 $193 −$324 (-63%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $34 $193 +$159 (+466%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $176 $187 +$11 (+6%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $184 $173 −$12 (-6%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $147 $157 +$10 (+7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $145 $157 +$12 (+8%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $133 $149 +$17 (+12%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $154 $143 −$11 (-7%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $154 $143 −$11 (-7%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $146 $137 −$9 (-6%)
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $165 $128 −$37 (-22%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $102 $127 +$25 (+25%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $102 $127 +$25 (+25%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $137 $112 −$25 (-18%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $125 $108 −$17 (-14%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $237 $108 −$129 (-54%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $148 $105 −$43 (-29%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $7 +$24 +331%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$6 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $91 +$21 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,066 −$27 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $17 −$5 -30%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $44 +$22 +50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $0 +$12 +7800%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $288 +$18 +6%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $15 +$13 +82%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $22 +$125 +576%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 11 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 11 $55 +$5 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $66 +$11 +17%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$37 -37%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $258 −$40 -15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +160%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$5,171
politics 10% −$217
world 4% −$25
tech 2% −$12
sports 1% −$15
crypto 0% +$20
economics 0% +$5
finance 0% +$6
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5m
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 6m
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 23m
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL No 1¢ $0 24m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 30m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will Chelsea Clinton be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 36m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 38m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 40m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 40m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 40m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 41m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +76.3% +59.6% 57% 38% -7.1%
≤30d 37 +76.3% +59.6% 57% 38% -7.1%
≤90d 37 +76.3% +59.6% 57% 38% -7.1%
all 37 +76.3% +59.6% 57% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1210.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.6% 38% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here +44.3% 27% -16.0%
15% +30.3% 19% -24.1%
20% +17.6% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,817.37 · official $11,817.71 (match) · 3500 history records