trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +27.0% | +14.9% | 83% | 50% | +17.5% |
| all | 22 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 45% | 27% | -3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 27% | -3.6% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 18% | -12.8% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 9% | -21.2% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 5% | -28.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Jun 27 | $69 | +$1 | +1% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers | Apr 08 | $435 | +$63 | +14% |
| 76ers vs. Spurs | Apr 07 | $451 | +$131 | +29% |
| Bulls vs. Knicks | Apr 03 | $34 | −$33 | -97% |
| Bulls vs. Spurs | Apr 01 | $463 | +$24 | +5% |
| 76ers vs. Hornets | Mar 30 | $136 | +$290 | +212% |
| Lakers vs. Heat | Mar 19 | $262 | −$262 | -100% |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | Mar 19 | $4 | −$2 | -68% |
| Bucks vs. Heat | Mar 19 | $182 | +$78 | +43% |
| Jazz vs. Bucks | Mar 11 | $137 | +$43 | +32% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Feb 28 | $143 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 13 | $137 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 08 | $23 | +$1 | +6% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Jan 31 | $31 | +$5 | +16% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jan 25 | $143 | −$15 | -10% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 03 | $161 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Dec 22 | $164 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Nov 25 | $120 | −$38 | -32% |
| Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November? | Nov 12 | $128 | −$7 | -6% |
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Nov 11 | $146 | −$19 | -13% |
| Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? | Nov 06 | $47 | −$23 | -48% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 06 | $31 | −$8 | -27% |