Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbefe…120c other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2
other 41% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 11% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 11% -8.9%
all 22 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -8.9%
10% -20.3% 5% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage458d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $44 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 17m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 18m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 18m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 8h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $19 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $45 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $45 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $45 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $44 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $29 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $30 24d
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? SELL No 100¢ $13 356d
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 BUY Yes $0 378d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 389d
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? BUY No 99¢ $2 413d
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? BUY No 96¢ $12 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records