Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbeff…0d9a politics 14 markets active 4h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% −$3
other 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.0% -13.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -4.0% -13.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -4.0% -13.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 13 -2.3% -11.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage243d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $181 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 28 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025? Oct 23 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 8h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 11h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 13h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 18h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 20h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 21h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 22h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 32h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 178d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 178d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $16 206d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 87¢ $15 213d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 213d
Will Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.07 · official $19.07 (match) · 50 history records