Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbeff…e9ab sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,380 (+39%) realized +$4,369 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$520
7 days+$1,961
14 days+$2,240
30 days+$2,259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,699
crypto 7% +$12
world 6% −$204
other 3% −$259
finance 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.7% -16.5% 39% 39% +7.6%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 47% +9.3%
≤90d 43 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 47% +9.3%
all 43 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 47% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% +9.3%
10% -18.0% 40% -1.1%
15% -25.9% 40% -10.7%
20% -33.2% 35% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$190 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$4,369
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage25d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 67¢ 80¢ $215 $256 +$41 (+19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $44 $14 −$30 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $213 −$200 -94%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $528 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $109 −$100 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $528 −$528 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $164 +$396 +242%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$133 +123%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $527 −$500 -95%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $212 +$506 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $528 +$472 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $528 +$536 +102%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $211 −$211 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $528 −$528 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $212 +$454 +214%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $528 +$583 +110%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $105 −$101 -96%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $528 +$514 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $528 +$583 +110%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $105 +$56 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $845 +$933 +110%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$101 -95%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $316 −$33 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $529 −$248 -47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $528 +$472 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $528 +$622 +118%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$81 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $198 −$183 -93%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 −$22 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $106 +$251 +236%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $105 +$23 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 +$32 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $52 +$10 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $100 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $213 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $528 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $109 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $164 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $109 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $108 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $108 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $527 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $528 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $53 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $159 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $528 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $528 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $318 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $53 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $211 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $212 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $528 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $4 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $105 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $528 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $528 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $528 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $105 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $317 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.70 · official $284.70 (match) · 112 history records