Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BF 0xbf01…859e sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,513 (+28%) realized +$1,522 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$466
7 days+$1,417
14 days+$729
30 days+$1,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,550
other 11% −$116
crypto 9% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +57.1% +42.1% 58% 58% +43.3%
≤30d 34 +22.2% +10.5% 47% 47% +14.8%
≤90d 34 +22.2% +10.5% 47% 47% +14.8%
all 34 +22.2% +10.5% 47% 47% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 47% +14.8%
10% -0.0% 47% +3.8%
15% -9.7% 47% -6.2%
20% -18.6% 47% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$122 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$1,522
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage18d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$202 +198%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$105 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$231 +226%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$126 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$397 +388%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$99 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 +$424 +414%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $699 −$687 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $1,202 +$913 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $197 +$212 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $102 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $102 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $102 27h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $102 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $102 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.44 · official $391.44 (match) · 58 history records