Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf02…6f56
politics · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage318d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 53¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$2 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $33 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 03 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $1 $0 +21%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 02 $1 +$1 +44%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $9 $0 -2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $62 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 31 $62 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% +$1
world 25% −$4
politics 18% $0
sports 10% −$1
economics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $31 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $27 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $26 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $3 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $34 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $11 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 39 +1.3% -8.3% 23% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.74 · official $30.74 (match) · 182 history records