Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf02…4c14 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-3%) realized −$290 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%40W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$597
other 8% −$757
sports 4% −$114
world 2% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 30% -28.8%
≤30d 129 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 30% -28.8%
≤90d 129 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 30% -28.8%
all 129 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 30% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 30% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 30% -35.6%
15% -40.8% 29% -41.9%
20% -46.6% 27% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$54 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$290
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses40 / 89
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 46¢ $250 $232 −$18 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $235 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $156 −$88 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $95 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $183 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$37 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$83 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$40 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$79 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $130 −$23 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$46 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$30 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $131 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$60 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$16 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $331 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $53 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $76 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $89 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.14 · official $232.14 (match) · 368 history records