Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf0b…3da3 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$158 (+12%) realized +$86 · open +$72
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$240
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$192
politics 29% −$198
other 15% +$14
world 7% +$58
economics 7% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +149.3% +125.5% 73% 73% +90.9%
≤30d 12 +128.5% +106.8% 67% 67% +78.3%
≤90d 19 +73.6% +57.1% 53% 53% -2.0%
all 19 +73.6% +57.1% 53% 53% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.1% 53% -2.0%
10% +42.1% 53% -11.4%
15% +28.3% 53% -20.0%
20% +15.8% 53% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +174% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$55 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$514
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage96d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 90¢ $99 $157 +$58 (+59%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $99 $107 +$8 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 24¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $19 +$68 +365%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$23 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 +$51 +307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$46 +276%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$34 +206%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$19 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$59 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$23 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Lu Dort be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Team? May 15 $98 +$168 +171%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 May 14 $94 +$83 +88%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $47 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $50 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $19 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $19 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $19 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $17 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $17 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $17 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $15 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $15 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $15 7d
Will Lu Dort be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Team? SELL No 95¢ $266 35d
Will Lu Dort be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Team? BUY No 35¢ $98 35d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 SELL No 98¢ $176 35d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 BUY No 52¢ $94 50d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 61¢ $96 50d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 57¢ $99 92d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 19¢ $99 92d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 62¢ $99 93d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $99 93d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $99 94d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $99 94d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 23¢ $99 95d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $99 95d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.33 · official $514.35 (match) · 137 history records