Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf0c…d56f other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,408 (-1%) realized −$1,412 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,060per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$180
politics 41% −$64
sports 12% −$1,483
world 2% −$53
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -3.5% -12.7% 10% 0% -10.7%
all 136 -3.2% -12.4% 23% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 10% -10.4%
10% -20.8% 9% -19.0%
15% -28.5% 7% -26.8%
20% -35.5% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,380) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$1,412
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,060
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $714 $718 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $5,935 −$6 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,848 −$3 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6,231 −$8 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,315 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $436 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $747 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,308 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,569 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,458 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $3,142 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $869 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $452 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $458 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4,647 −$5 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,741 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,541 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,380 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,474 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,175 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 3h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 23h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $291 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $291 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $249 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $249 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $266 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $266 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $714 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,376 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,603 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,605 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,588 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,337 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,339 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,620 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,622 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 22d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,585 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.89 · official $717.89 (match) · 453 history records