Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf10…15ce crypto 553 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$570 (-2%) realized −$567 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%224W / 527L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day71.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$917
7 days−$944
14 days−$985
30 days−$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -72.5% -75.1% 5% 2% -47.3%
≤30d 375 -45.6% -50.8% 16% 6% -28.7%
≤90d 751 -31.1% -37.7% 30% 3% -12.7%
all 751 -31.1% -37.7% 30% 3% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 3% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 2% -21.0%
15% -49.1% 2% -28.6%
20% -54.1% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$567
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses224 / 527
Open positions1
Markets (closed)751 / 553
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 61¢ 72¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 36¢ 28¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 3500 history records