Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BF 0xbf15…fcca crypto 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$167 (+6%) realized +$169 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%204W / 110L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$38
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$96
other 3% +$5
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 52% -8.0%
≤30d 314 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 54% -5.9%
≤90d 314 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 54% -5.9%
all 314 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 54% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 54% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -14.9%
15% -24.6% 28% -23.1%
20% -32.0% 19% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses204 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$39 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.11 · official $31.11 (match) · 629 history records