Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf19…8480 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (220 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2,033 (+24%) realized +$2,045 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate76%47W / 15L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day220.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,118
sports 0% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (220 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +76.6% +59.8% 76% 55% +4.6%
≤30d 62 +76.6% +59.8% 76% 55% +4.6%
≤90d 62 +76.6% +59.8% 76% 55% +4.6%
all 62 +76.6% +59.8% 76% 55% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover220.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.8% 55% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here +44.5% 42% -5.5%
15% +30.5% 27% -14.6%
20% +17.7% 23% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +142% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$102 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$2,045
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses47 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day220.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 36¢ 30¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $115 +$63 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $416 +$284 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,282 +$1,044 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $65 −$45 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $530 −$506 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $498 −$398 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $223 −$202 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$42 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $178 +$272 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $246 +$104 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$22 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$43 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $124 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$26 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $174 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $60 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $86 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $71 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2,175 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $19 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.94 · official $41.00 · 468 history records