Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf1b…a93c crypto 603 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$293 (-4%) realized −$305 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%474W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day100.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$220
14 days−$377
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$338
other 3% +$17
weather 2% +$4
sports 2% −$32
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 27% -14.1%
≤30d 587 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 26% -13.8%
≤90d 587 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 26% -13.8%
all 587 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 26% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 26% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 11% -22.0%
15% -25.4% 5% -29.6%
20% -32.7% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses474 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)587 / 603
History coverage13d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day100.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 88¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Bosnia-Herzegovina 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? No 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$28 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$10 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $3 3h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $3 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $2 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 14h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $5 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.29 · official $207.29 (match) · 1971 history records