Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf1d…2c0a sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-34%) realized −$39 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$61
sports 45% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -49.3% -54.1% 0% 0% -57.7%
≤30d 3 -49.3% -54.1% 0% 0% -57.7%
≤90d 3 -49.3% -54.1% 0% 0% -57.7%
all 3 -49.3% -54.1% 0% 0% -57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 0% -57.7%
10% -58.5% 0% -61.7%
15% -62.5% 0% -65.4%
20% -66.2% 0% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$24 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 −$33 -45%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$35 -85%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $36 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $43.33 · 22 history records