Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbf1e…62bd crypto 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%277W / 19L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$30
crypto 35% +$9
other 27% −$2
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -0.0% -9.5% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
all 296 +0.0% -9.5% 94% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses277 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 296
History coverage210d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $278 +$1 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $140 +$1 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $139 −$3 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,796 +$4 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $137 +$1 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $276 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $531 −$13 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $397 +$2 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $279 +$1 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $146 −$8 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $191 +$4 +2%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $148 +$1 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $148 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $148 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $146 +$1 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Sto May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 28? May 28 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 26? May 26 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 24? May 24 $129 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 22? May 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 22? May 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 20? May 20 $128 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $145 $0 +0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $139 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 14? May 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will "Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine" be the top global Netflix sh May 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 12? May 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 7? May 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 7? May 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 5? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 5? May 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Google dip to $240 in April? May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? May 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 29 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on April 27? Apr 27 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $141 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $141 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $77 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $137 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $141 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $140 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 97¢ $136 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $139 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $117 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 845 history records