Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf20…4f40 other 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,098 (+6%) realized +$426 · open +$1,672
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$460per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$483
7 days+$699
14 days+$1,034
30 days+$1,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,001
sports 43% +$5,678
crypto 1% −$249
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 25% -7.4%
≤30d 71 -1.9% -11.2% 34% 27% -6.7%
≤90d 71 -1.9% -11.2% 34% 27% -6.7%
all 75 +3.6% -6.3% 37% 31% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 31% -4.9%
10% -15.3% 21% -14.0%
15% -23.4% 19% -22.3%
20% -30.9% 15% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -51% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$144 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$4,087
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$1,672
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage285d
Avg bet$460
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 96¢ $1,900 $3,575 +$1,675 (+88%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $515 $512 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,007 +$276 +14%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $509 −$394 -77%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $663 −$650 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$21 -81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $245 +$255 +104%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,023 +$952 +93%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,857 +$109 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $71 +$29 +41%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,996 +$3,494 +117%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $102 +$116 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 +$22 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,129 −$3,100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $90 +$17 +18%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $109 −$76 -70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$126 +2458%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$66 +1290%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,383 +$92 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $3,452 +$176 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $200 +$301 +150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2,185 +$636 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 −$16 -30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$84 -81%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $298 −$110 -37%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,163 +$529 +24%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 18¢ $6 11m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 57¢ $20 18m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1,928 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,007 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $115 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $663 9h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $78 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $54 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 0¢ $10 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $75 29h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $152 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $406 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $22 30h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $22 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,086.65 · official $4,086.65 (match) · 203 history records