Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf20…bcfd crypto 835 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%515W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$320
14 days+$434
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$157
finance 32% +$501
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +35.6% +22.7% 73% 36% +21.1%
≤30d 87 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 47% +16.7%
≤90d 834 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 34% -3.1%
all 834 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 34% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 34% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 32% -12.4%
15% -27.9% 31% -20.8%
20% -35.0% 30% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses515 / 319
Open positions1
Markets (closed)834 / 835
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22? No 77¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 22? Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 22? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? Jun 22 $55 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? Jun 22 $71 +$33 +46%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$5 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 18 $61 −$6 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? Jun 18 $56 +$13 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Jun 17 $34 −$18 -52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$8 +19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$144 +580%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$67 +216%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$92 +296%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$11 +148%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$9 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -88%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$25 +284%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$8 +72%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$29 +142%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 09 $40 −$40 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$9 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$8 +85%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$6 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22? SELL No 88¢ $22 0m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? SELL No 95¢ $19 37m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? SELL No 94¢ $38 39m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22? SELL No 75¢ $34 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $55 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $18 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 22? SELL No 53¢ $15 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? SELL Yes 86¢ $57 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $55 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $4 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $13 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $18 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 22? BUY No 56¢ $17 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $18 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $55 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? SELL No 35¢ $72 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? BUY No 17¢ $37 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? SELL Yes 62¢ $56 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? SELL Yes 65¢ $14 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $15 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 18? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.32 · official $19.32 (match) · 3500 history records