Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf21…be19
sports · 271 markets active 2d ago
1.0score
+$5,417 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,362 · open +$1,474
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,987
Realized+$3,362
Unrealized+$1,474
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses124 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$577
Open positions13
Markets (closed)261 / 271
History coverage84d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 13 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$239
14 days−$1,140
30 days+$1,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 44¢ 70¢ $6,359 $10,054 +$3,695 (+58%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $6,510 $4,153 −$2,357 (-36%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 53¢ 62¢ $273 $318 +$45 (+16%)
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? Yes 6¢ 37¢ $33 $190 +$157 (+474%)
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 53¢ 68¢ $143 $182 +$39 (+27%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 25¢ 41¢ $23 $37 +$15 (+65%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $93 $35 −$58 (-62%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? No 8¢ 1¢ $40 $5 −$35 (-88%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $27 $1 −$27 (-98%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $414 $0 −$414 (-100%)
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cesena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $6,155 $0 −$6,155 (-100%)
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will AD Ceuta FC achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lens win Coupe de France? No 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $12 +$180 +1480%
Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le Jun 12 $23 −$430 -1835%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? Jun 10 $87 +$3 +4%
Will CD Castellon achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 20 Jun 09 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Jun 04 $13 −$11 -82%
Will SD Eibar achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-2 May 31 $40 +$7 +17%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 30 $257 −$57 -22%
Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for th May 29 $175 −$18 -10%
Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 s May 29 $1,199 −$822 -68%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 25 $620 −$13 -2%
Will Cordoba CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will RC Deportivo de la Coruna achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALI May 25 $481 +$461 +96%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $11 +$9 +88%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $437 +$1,203 +275%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $106 +$25 +24%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $315 +$685 +218%
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $48 +$16 +32%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 23 $358 −$183 -51%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl May 23 $177 +$1,174 +662%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 21 $815 +$292 +36%
Will Palermo achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 May 20 $436 +$154 +35%
Will Juve Stabia achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 202 May 19 $331 −$321 -97%
Will FC Andorra achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 May 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will SV Elversberg achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesli May 17 $548 −$532 -97%
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga May 17 $524 −$123 -24%
Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le May 17 $128 −$8 -6%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 17 $196 +$110 +56%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag May 16 $176 +$61 +34%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 13 $46 +$22 +47%
Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026 May 13 $391 −$191 -49%
Will Red Star FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 202 May 13 $605 +$103 +17%
Will Avellino achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-2 May 13 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Modena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 May 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026- May 13 $76 −$75 -100%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $16 $0 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $6,155 −$6,155 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,080 +$20 +2%
Will Real Sporting de Gijon achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA May 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will FC Annecy achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026- May 10 $183 +$4 +2%
Will Stade de Reims achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the May 10 $155 +$7 +4%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 09 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Will Frosinone achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026- May 08 $1,041 −$32 -3%
Will Cesena achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 May 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $380 −$20 -5%
Will Millwall achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engli May 07 $544 −$58 -11%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 07 $60 +$21 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$2,056
other 41% +$8,076
finance 8% −$2,502
tech 6% −$2,883
world 1% +$320
crypto 1% +$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $28 2d
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 2d
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 2d
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 45¢ $79 2d
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 2d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 2d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 2d
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 2d
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 2d
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 4d
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $2 4d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $5 7d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $39 7d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 67¢ $87 8d
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $182 8d
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 65¢ $86 8d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $1 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $3 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $1 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $1 9d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +284.4% +247.8% 80% 40% +45.2%
≤30d 35 +75.6% +58.8% 66% 51% +12.6%
≤90d 261 +8.6% -1.8% 48% 39% -6.1%
all 261 +8.6% -1.8% 48% 39% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 39% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 38% -15.1%
15% -19.7% 36% -23.3%
20% -27.6% 32% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,987.18 · official $14,986.96 (match) · 3500 history records