Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BF 0xbf23…0fc1 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$118
tech 17% +$2
culture 7% $0
other 1% −$19
politics 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -47.3% -52.3% 44% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 34 -47.3% -52.3% 44% 35% -7.5%
≤90d 38 -44.4% -49.7% 45% 32% -8.1%
all 49 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 45% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 45% -6.5%
10% -34.5% 22% -15.5%
15% -40.9% 18% -23.6%
20% -46.7% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage714d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Dayeon Back 84¢ 95¢ $188 $214 +$26 (+14%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 84¢ 89¢ $74 $79 +$4 (+6%)
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Max Purcell 84¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 19 $37 +$8 +23%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 18 $63 +$12 +20%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $63 +$12 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $134 +$16 +12%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $6 +$1 +11%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $70 +$5 +8%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $67 +$8 +12%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $129 +$21 +16%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $53 +$3 +6%
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri Jun 17 $188 +$37 +20%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $22 +$3 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $71 +$4 +6%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $247 +$53 +21%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $63 +$12 +20%
Will David Portnoy's next gf be over 25? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lega receive more than 9% of votes? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the DOJ charge Boeing? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Kings Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Team World vs. Team USA Stars Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Suns vs. Lakers Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Will "The Drama" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 06 $160 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 on March 26? Mar 30 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Mar 26 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 18? Mar 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $190? Mar 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 11 $6 +$2 +39%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 05 $4 +$2 +49%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 23 $10 +$7 +70%
Pelicans vs. Magic Jan 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jan 03 $7 +$3 +37%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 08 $10 +$6 +64%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 01 $3 +$5 +150%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 22 $3 +$6 +173%
Will Beryl hit US as a hurricane? Nov 11 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 87¢ $66 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 82¢ $62 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 82¢ $62 1h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 84¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 84¢ $75 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 84¢ $63 14h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY ex-MANA eSports 81¢ $37 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 89¢ $67 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 89¢ $67 15h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 83¢ $63 18h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $70 19h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Martha Matoula 86¢ $64 20h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Martha Matoula 86¢ $64 20h
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva BUY Zhibek Kulambayeva 89¢ $67 20h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 94¢ $53 20h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 90¢ $6 21h
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 89¢ $22 47h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang BUY Anchisa Chanta 96¢ $53 2d
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang BUY Anchisa Chanta 90¢ $18 2d
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 89¢ $67 2d
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 83¢ $63 2d
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 83¢ $63 2d
ITF Haskovo: Julia Stamatova vs Dalila Spiteri BUY Dalila Spiteri 83¢ $63 2d
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh BUY Keisuke Saitoh 82¢ $21 2d
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 83¢ $63 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $62 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $62 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $62 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $62 2d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.52 · official $313.52 (match) · 111 history records