Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf23…7483 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-74%) realized −$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$121
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$166
sports 10% +$13
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +106.4% +86.7% 80% 80% +111.5%
≤30d 8 +52.4% +37.9% 62% 62% +44.2%
≤90d 10 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -46.4%
all 10 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 50% -46.4%
10% -0.2% 50% -51.5%
15% -9.9% 50% -56.2%
20% -18.7% 50% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$60 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage51d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$83 +324%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 29 $10 +$12 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $243 −$239 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $0 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $53 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 47¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 24¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $243 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records