Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf24…8ea4 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-11%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$62
sports 13% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -46.4% -51.5% 33% 33% -7.8%
≤30d 9 -46.4% -51.5% 33% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 9 -46.4% -51.5% 33% 33% -7.8%
all 11 -42.8% -48.2% 36% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 36% -10.3%
10% -53.2% 36% -18.9%
15% -57.7% 36% -26.8%
20% -61.9% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$47 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage243d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $119 +$86 +73%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $49 +$20 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $292 +$205 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 30 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $22 +$10 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $69 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL No 99¢ $69 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 49¢ $9 24h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 78¢ $40 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $292 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $49 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 53¢ $32 242d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 68¢ $22 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records