trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -72.6% | -75.2% | 25% | 0% | -56.0% |
| all | 15 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 27% | 13% | -60.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -57.5% | 13% | -60.2% |
| 10% | -61.6% | 13% | -64.0% |
| 15% | -65.3% | 7% | -67.5% |
| 20% | -68.7% | 7% | -70.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $107 | $105 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 63¢ | 62¢ | $31 | $31 | −$0 (-1%) |
| CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | Jun 19 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $13 | −$12 | -98% |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | Apr 29 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars? | Mar 20 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET | Mar 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Mar 13 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Named storm forms before hurricane season? | Mar 08 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Mar 06 | $27 | −$1 | -3% |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | Mar 06 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap | Mar 03 | $89 | −$89 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | Feb 25 | $5 | +$3 | +70% |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Feb 25 | $100 | +$33 | +33% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 09 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? | Feb 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |