Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf28…8953 crypto 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-5%) realized −$324 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%213W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$450
other 7% −$8
finance 5% +$129
sports 1% −$20
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.4% +25.2% 89% 89% +13.3%
≤30d 9 +38.4% +25.2% 89% 89% +13.3%
≤90d 136 -20.8% -28.3% 49% 39% -11.2%
all 478 -24.8% -32.0% 45% 34% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 34% -15.0%
10% -38.5% 25% -23.1%
15% -44.4% 17% -30.5%
20% -49.9% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses213 / 265
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)478 / 513
History coverage104d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+170%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +129%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 19 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 19 $40 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $15 −$4 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 08 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 07 $1 $0 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 07 $1 $0 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 07 $65 +$20 +30%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 07 $2 $0 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 07 $16 +$16 +98%
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 06 $2 +$2 +109%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 06 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 06 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 06 $31 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.33 · official $125.33 (match) · 1971 history records