Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BF 0xbf2b…2cd8 sports 1362 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$834 (-0%) realized −$834 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%787W / 572L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1,440est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$84
14 days−$247
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,662
other 1% +$163
world 0% −$35
weather 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 48% -12.1%
≤30d 250 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 42% -11.6%
≤90d 969 -31.3% -37.8% 43% 29% -11.7%
all 1359 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 41% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -10.3%
10% -16.7% 28% -18.9%
15% -24.7% 23% -26.7%
20% -32.1% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$834
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses787 / 572
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,440
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1359 / 1362
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 55¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vukic Aleksandar Vukic 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $202 −$69 -34%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $202 +$75 +37%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $117 +$11 +9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $100 −$14 -14%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $303 +$114 +38%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $101 −$25 -25%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $101 +$40 +40%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $251 +$50 +20%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $30 −$27 -90%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $32 −$7 -21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $30 +$26 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $75 −$17 -23%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $63 +$14 +23%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $81 +$19 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $99 −$98 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $101 +$43 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $44 −$39 -89%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $55 +$10 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $50 +$39 +77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $50 +$16 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 −$18 -28%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $12 −$11 -90%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $33 −$8 -26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $11 +$9 +85%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 55¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 63¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $133 4h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 89¢ $277 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 64¢ $32 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 65¢ $96 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $117 11h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $202 12h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $202 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 13h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $81 14h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $101 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $86 27h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 29¢ $5 27h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 82¢ $27 27h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $100 29h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $10 29h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $20 29h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 50¢ $76 31h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $101 34h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $303 35h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $101 44h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $251 44h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 70¢ $202 44h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $3 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 46¢ $14 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 39¢ $11 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.38 · official $100.39 (match) · 3439 history records