Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf2b…fb88 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$16
other 16% −$39
sports 6% −$53
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 40% -16.3%
≤30d 108 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 40% -16.3%
≤90d 108 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 40% -16.3%
all 108 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 40% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 35% -24.3%
15% -38.8% 28% -31.6%
20% -44.8% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 38¢ 32¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +32%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$7 +31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$27 +153%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$10 -83%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +112%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +61%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +85%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$11 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$19 +135%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$21 +63%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $39 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $32 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $22 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 20m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $45 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $12 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $33.29 · 234 history records