Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf2d…5ca9 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$26
other 25% +$1
politics 22% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% −$8
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 12 +59.0% +43.9% 33% 8% -13.6%
≤90d 13 +53.3% +38.7% 31% 8% -14.0%
all 43 +13.8% +2.9% 23% 2% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 2% -12.7%
10% -6.9% 2% -21.0%
15% -15.9% 2% -28.7%
20% -24.2% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage270d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $50 −$9 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $16 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $52 −$7 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $88 −$9 -10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $58 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $20 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 22 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $4 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $6 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $9 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $31 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $49 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $7 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $55 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $55 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.58 · official $36.58 (match) · 213 history records