Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf2e…0671
sports · 6 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$902 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$286 · open −$616
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$498
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$616
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$286
14 days−$286
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 54¢ 24¢ $1,114 $498 −$616 (-55%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 42¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Spirit 85¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $314 −$300 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$24 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$30 -49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$9 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$902
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 34¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $499 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $303 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 83¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $301 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 58¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 95¢ $28 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 68¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 43¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 38¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 60% -70.9%
≤30d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 60% -70.9%
≤90d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 60% -70.9%
all 5 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 60% -70.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 60% -70.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 40% -73.7%
15% -32.4% 40% -76.2%
20% -39.0% 40% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.85 · official $497.85 (match) · 21 history records