Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf2e…a7a7 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+5%) realized +$44 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$23
other 35% +$13
world 18% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 25% -3.6%
≤90d 8 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 12% -4.8%
all 8 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 12% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 12% -4.8%
10% -13.9% 0% -13.9%
15% -22.2% 0% -22.2%
20% -29.8% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage74d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $103 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 21 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $89 +$13 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 02 $85 +$5 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 26 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 15 $172 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $104 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $105 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $102 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $102 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $110 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $108 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 86¢ $89 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? BUY No 94¢ $85 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $85 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $83 56d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $83 56d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $82 63d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 68d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 95¢ $172 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.54 · official $217.54 (match) · 19 history records