Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf31…525e weather 387 markets active 1d ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%371W / 15L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$92
world 11% +$3
crypto 3% +$1
sports 3% +$6
other 2% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 113 +0.3% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 358 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.1%
all 386 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.82 per $1 lost it wins $9.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses371 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage237d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $267 $267 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $267 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $77 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $76 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $79 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $75 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $18 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 93¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.35 · official $267.35 (match) · 905 history records