Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf33…0353 sports 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,234 (-5%) realized −$11,234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%178W / 214L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$598per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$2,809est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$1,063
14 days+$2,474
30 days+$5,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$12,469
crypto 2% −$1,680
other 1% +$3
world 0% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -37.1% -43.1% 28% 28% -42.5%
≤30d 114 -21.8% -29.3% 45% 45% -2.2%
≤90d 347 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 44% -13.0%
all 392 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -14.9%
10% -32.1% 36% -23.1%
15% -38.7% 28% -30.5%
20% -44.7% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$345 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses178 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,809
Open positions0
Markets (closed)392 / 392
History coverage182d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 392 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$50 +327%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $302 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$102 +167%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $112 +$93 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $578 −$50 -9%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $202 +$89 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $95 +$102 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $459 +$137 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $131 −$116 -89%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $181 −$181 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $202 +$80 +40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $66 −$24 -36%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $601 −$601 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $128 +$40 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $114 +$63 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$22 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $42 +$39 +92%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $182 +$42 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $299 +$331 +111%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $218 +$97 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $160 +$53 +33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $69 +$52 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $45 +$20 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $214 −$214 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $735 −$735 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $135 +$101 +74%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $230 −$230 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $2,128 −$2,128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $456 +$326 +71%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $968 −$968 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$8 -74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,518 +$993 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $66 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $163 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $47 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 20¢ $10 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $158 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $59 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $41 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 34¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $745 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $487 10h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $291 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 98¢ $197 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 46¢ $95 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $202 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 8¢ $5 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $20 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $392 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $88 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 36¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $204 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1417 history records