Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf37…a3ea politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$12
sports 15% −$1
economics 10% −$1
other 5% −$12
crypto 5% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -2.0% -11.3% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -3.7% -12.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage238d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $528 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $905 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1 $0 -21%
Will there be no coalition by October 31? Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $369 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 10 $15 −$12 -81%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Feb 02 $536 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 20 $484 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $485 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $485 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 15 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 14 $487 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $487 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $487 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $15 $0 +3%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 22 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 12h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 16h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 18h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 23h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 23h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 33h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 37h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 39h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.48 · official $358.48 (match) · 134 history records