Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BF 0xbf37…1633 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$120 (+3%) realized +$130 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$199per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$990now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$243

7 days+$253

14 days+$126

30 days+$26

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-18.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+8.6%	-1.8%	43%	43%	+1.8%
≤30d	16	-10.2%	-18.7%	31%	25%	-8.7%
≤90d	16	-10.2%	-18.7%	31%	25%	-8.7%
all	16	-10.2%	-18.7%	31%	25%	-8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.7%	25%	-8.7%
10%	-26.5%	19%	-17.5%
15%	-33.6%	6%	-25.4%
20%	-40.1%	0%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$27 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.09 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$990

Realized+$130

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage19d

Avg bet$199

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	57¢	56¢	$250	$248	−$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Under	57¢	56¢	$250	$248	−$2 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Paraguay	54¢	54¢	$250	$248	−$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	No	45¢	44¢	$250	$247	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$505	−$17	-3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$505	+$90	+18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$506	+$169	+33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$24	+24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$101	−$3	-3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$102	−$7	-6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$204	−$5	-2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	+$39	+37%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	$0	-0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	+$2	+2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	−$18	-17%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	−$22	-21%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	−$31	-30%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$104	−$38	-36%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$103	−$60	-58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 13	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	45¢	$255	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$254	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL No	81¢	$489	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Paraguay	54¢	$255	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$254	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	82¢	$505	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY No	84¢	$505	22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	74¢	$506	47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	84¢	$98	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	85¢	$101	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	60¢	$95	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	42¢	$103	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	60¢	$97	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	40¢	$102	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	62¢	$102	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	80¢	$101	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$142	10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$103	10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$106	10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$86	10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$81	10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$72	10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$66	10d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$44	10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	76¢	$100	15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	18d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	18d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$101	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $990.42 · official $990.51 (match) · 51 history records