Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:07:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf39…3394 sports 351 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$537 (-2%) realized −$537 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%224W / 127L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$173
14 days−$64
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$600
other 3% +$5
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +1.2% -8.4% 64% 54% -5.0%
≤30d 243 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 51% -10.8%
≤90d 351 +4.5% -5.5% 64% 52% -11.4%
all 351 +4.5% -5.5% 64% 52% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 52% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 38% -19.9%
15% -22.8% 25% -27.6%
20% -30.3% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses224 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage46d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $259 +$22 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 +$78 +43%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $278 −$96 -34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $254 +$22 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $232 +$22 +10%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $212 +$20 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $181 +$29 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $156 +$27 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $82 +$106 +130%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $19 +$20 +109%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $19 −$8 -45%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $156 −$153 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $132 +$24 +18%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 +$81 +158%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $83 −$23 -28%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru Jun 19 $17 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $94 +$9 +10%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $100 −$7 -7%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $82 +$19 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $121 +$32 +26%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -79%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $82 +$21 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $26 +$56 +216%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +21%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 −$15 -35%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $33 +$9 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +112%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $36 +$12 +34%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $22 +$26 +118%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $13 +$9 +66%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $7 +$6 +85%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $12 +$4 +35%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $16 +$9 +57%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $35 +$11 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $29 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $281 14m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $259 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $259 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $181 7h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 56¢ $182 7h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 84¢ $278 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $276 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 92¢ $254 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 91¢ $232 11h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $232 11h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 91¢ $212 12h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $210 12h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 86¢ $181 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 85¢ $156 14h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $156 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $71 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $32 15h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum SELL Damir Dzumhur 100¢ $39 16h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Damir Dzumhur 47¢ $19 17h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $11 18h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Filippo Romano 26¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 992 history records