Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf3a…e02f politics 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$5
politics 34% −$5
sports 13% −$1
culture 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.2% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -2.7% -12.0% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 86 -10.4% -18.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage401d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -29%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $62 $0 -1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? May 26 $57 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $60 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $57 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $1 $0 -43%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $123 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 04 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $64 $0 -0%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 03 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $51 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 21d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 21d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.35 · official $53.35 (match) · 400 history records