trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 31% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 31% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 27 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 52% | 4% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.6% | 4% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -23.7% | 0% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $84 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $30 | −$3 | -11% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $31 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $30 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $66 | −$3 | -4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 05 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? | Jun 29 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 27 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 15 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 14 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 14 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 16 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| St. John's vs. DePaul | Mar 05 | $9 | +$1 | +16% |