Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf3d…17a7 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,056 (+23%) realized +$1,056 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$647
other 14% −$313
sports 8% +$471
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 75% -3.0%
≤30d 7 +49.5% +35.3% 71% 71% +18.7%
≤90d 10 +34.1% +21.3% 70% 60% +6.2%
all 10 +34.1% +21.3% 70% 60% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.3% 60% +6.2%
10% +9.7% 60% -4.0%
15% -0.9% 50% -13.3%
20% -10.6% 50% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$134 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,056
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage74d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $206 +$57 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $255 −$164 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $168 +$88 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 +$72 +76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $284 +$265 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $79 +$206 +262%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $144 −$140 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 15 $2,978 +$222 +8%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Apr 16 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 14 $341 +$296 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $262 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $91 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $255 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $168 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $95 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $549 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $284 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $79 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $93 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,251 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $84 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $249 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $151 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $156 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $332 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,225 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 36¢ $883 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 42¢ $724 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 46¢ $866 47d
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $100 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records