Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf40…527a crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$713 (+19%) realized −$218 · open +$931
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$879
crypto 30% −$406
sports 12% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 42% -2.2%
≤30d 12 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 42% -2.2%
≤90d 31 -14.3% -22.5% 45% 42% -15.7%
all 35 -21.9% -29.3% 40% 37% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 37% -23.7%
10% -36.1% 34% -31.0%
15% -42.3% 34% -37.6%
20% -47.9% 29% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$39 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$2,536
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$931
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)35 / 46
History coverage130d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $1,124 $1,938 +$813 (+72%)
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 100¢ $100 $256 +$156 (+156%)
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $58 $64 +$5 (+9%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $37 −$6 (-14%)
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $109 −$107 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$3 +3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $113 −$7 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $558 +$205 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $20 +$28 +140%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$13 +134%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$9 +89%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 31 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 31 $7 −$4 -56%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$6 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 16 $93 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 33m
Will Yulia Putintseva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 49m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $7 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Under 36¢ $106 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 10h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 11h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 11h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 56¢ $112 11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $113 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 11h
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 11h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 11h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 11h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 11h
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 11h
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 11h
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11h
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,536.23 · official $2,536.23 (match) · 134 history records