Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf43…7f2b
sports · 69 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$259 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$243 · open +$148
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$532
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)47 / 69
History coverage579d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 22 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$293
14 days+$330
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $332 $481 +$149 (+45%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Pistons 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 −$5 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $42 +$298 +712%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 +$34 +165%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$3 +70%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $12 +$3 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $12 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 −$1 -48%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) May 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 11 $2 +$3 +130%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Bruins Apr 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 15 $3 +$4 +138%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Apr 09 $9 +$3 +37%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jun 22 $27 −$8 -28%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Jun 22 $12 −$5 -45%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Thunder vs. Hawks Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Warriors Feb 28 $5 $0 +3%
Warriors vs. Magic Feb 28 $6 +$4 +54%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Feb 26 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Peyton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Feb 22 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Feb 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? Jan 01 $2 +$14 +809%
Warriors vs. Rockets Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 12 $4 $0 +12%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? Dec 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Luigi Mangione charged by Friday? Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Kaczynski" be in the manifesto? Dec 11 $15 −$12 -84%
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? Nov 20 $12 +$5 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs Nov 20 $2 +$8 +376%
Hawks vs. Celtics Nov 13 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$439
other 13% −$50
world 5% −$8
tech 3% +$7
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $25 22m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 55m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 58m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 59m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $8 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 58¢ $65 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $10 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $25 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 4h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $42 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +202.3% +173.5% 33% 33% +500.4%
≤30d 13 +53.0% +38.5% 62% 38% +229.9%
≤90d 22 +30.2% +17.8% 55% 41% +188.0%
all 47 +16.1% +5.0% 47% 34% +53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 34% +53.5%
10% -5.0% 30% +38.8%
15% -14.2% 30% +25.4%
20% -22.6% 23% +13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.48 · official $532.48 (match) · 128 history records