Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf47…055a politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$14
other 29% −$4
culture 8% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$856) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage84d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $808 −$2 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $824 −$4 -0%
Will Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 18 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $866 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Mar 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $132 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Mar 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Mar 26 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 46m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 52m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $29 58m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 7h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,105 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $22 27h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $10 27h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $18 28h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 28h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $822 28h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 28h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $208 28h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 28h
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 99¢ $86 24d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $45 24d
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $22 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.35 · official $31.35 (match) · 98 history records