Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf4d…e606
crypto · 273 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$56 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$48 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses258 / 5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)263 / 273
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$29
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 90¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Fulmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? No 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% +$65
politics 8% −$13
finance 2% −$4
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 263 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 263 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
all 263 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 0% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.09 · official $172.09 (match) · 540 history records