Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf4e…a689 other 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,675 (-1%) realized −$1,678 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$27
politics 42% −$55
sports 7% −$816
world 3% −$788
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -10.1% -18.7% 13% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 6% -10.8%
10% -26.4% 6% -19.4%
15% -33.6% 6% -27.2%
20% -40.1% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,146) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized−$1,678
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage135d
Avg bet$929
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $587 $590 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $462 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $464 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,230 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,906 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $907 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,016 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $360 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,585 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $525 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $413 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $664 +$3 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $982 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,956 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,114 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,594 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $717 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $544 8m
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $545 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $461 19h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $462 20h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $464 21h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $464 23h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $459 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $459 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $465 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $465 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $466 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $466 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $587 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $524 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $525 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,056 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,057 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,060 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,061 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1,050 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,051 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $935 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $937 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.67 · official $589.67 (match) · 422 history records