Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf4e…532e crypto 802 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1679 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$465 (-17%) realized −$465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate60%751W / 497L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1679.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$92
other 24% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1679 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1248 -36.5% -42.5% 60% 1% -30.2%
≤30d 1248 -36.5% -42.5% 60% 1% -30.2%
≤90d 1248 -36.5% -42.5% 60% 1% -30.2%
all 1248 -36.5% -42.5% 60% 1% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1679.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 1% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 0% -36.9%
15% -53.0% 0% -43.0%
20% -57.6% 0% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses751 / 497
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1248 / 802
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1679.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 29m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 29m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 36m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.76 · official $1.17 · 3500 history records