Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf50…6f83 world 26 markets active 2d ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$4
other 15% $0
sports 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.1%
all 26 -3.7% -12.9% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage492d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $84 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $95 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $52 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records