Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BF 0xbf52…7839 tech 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+24%) realized −$38 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 2 -42.4% -47.9% 50% 0% -36.1%
≤90d 2 -42.4% -47.9% 50% 0% -36.1%
all 2 -42.4% -47.9% 50% 0% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 0% -36.1%
10% -52.9% 0% -42.2%
15% -57.4% 0% -47.8%
20% -61.6% 0% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$32 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 68¢ $355 $503 +$149 (+42%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? No 71¢ 92¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$32 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.35 · official $550.70 · 12 history records